6:32 a.m. One thing looks certain: Trump did a smashing job courting the Hispanic vote in southern Texas but especially in Miami-Dade County. It’s probable Florida might’ve flipped if MDC had come through for Biden. Now I wake up with Donna Shalala and my congressperson Debbie Mucarsel-Powell defeated. No one expected these outcomes.
6:27 a.m. When I went to bed, Arizona sat in the Dem column, comfortably, according to FOX News and the AP. CNN and MSNBC haven’t called the state. The outstanding mail-in vote keeps news agencies from calling Nevada.
6:26 a.m. Good morning. I went to bed fifteen minutes after my last post. I slept about three hours before my dayslong problem of adjusting to last Sunday’s hour change combined with nerves yanked me up.
12:33 a.m. “Atlanta won’t finish its count tonight. Election workers in Fulton County, who were counting absentee ballots, went home for the night. A water line break delayed the count” – NYT
12:32 a.m. In North Carolina, by the way, the 75,000-vote margin may get affected by the number of postmarked ballots that the state will accept after today.
12:09 a.m. Hi. I’m still here. The big news: FOX News, good at this sort of thing ever since Megyn Kelly clopped down to visit the nerds who called Ohio for Barack Obama in 2012, called Arizona for Biden. Millions of uncounted votes remain in Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin. So we may go into this tomorrow — the Dems’ worst nightmare considering the president’s bluster.
10:18 p.m. I’m still optimistic because the crucial non-battleground states haven’t flipped yet. Nothing’s flipped yet we haven’t expected.
9:28 p.m. Trump improving margins among Hispanic voters depresses me; Biden’s improving margins over Clinton among white voters in the Midwest surprises me.
9:06 p.m. If you see a gap in coverage, I’ve taken a (late) dinner break. Wine too.
8:53 p.m. What I’m learning: y’all care about the damn NYT needle more than I do. I’ve never looked at it.
8:50 p.m. Good news: Daniella Levine Cava defeats Esteban “Steve” Bovo to become Miami-Dade County’s first female mayor.
8:27 p.m. Should Florida fall to Trump, which I’ve never doubted, I know — I’ve written about it — the statewide party has work to do organizing.
8:08 p.m. I never counted Florida in the win county, as I’ve said repeatedly. The only genuine surprise is the extent of Democratic erosion in MDC. But we were here in 2018 too.
7:58 p.m. Looks like Florida as a whole’s doing better than expected for Dems…except my home county.
7:54 p.m. https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1323790703646920706
7:40 p.m. I hasten to point out: the mail-in votes are not counted yet in Florida. What we see now are EV totals.
7:31 p.m. Broward just put Biden ahead in Florida while we wait for Orange County (Orlando) and Leon (Tallahassee).
7:26 p.m. Duval and Palm Beach County also doing well for Biden in EV.
7:17 p.m. At this moment, though, Miami-Dade is underperforming.
7:14 p.m. Broward County looks like it’s overperforming.
7:06 p.m. Damn. Biden at 53. 6 to Trump’s 53.4 in EV in Pinellas, which Trump won in 2016.
7:02 p.m. Pasco County, north of Tampa-St. Petersburg, sees a drop in Trump’s totals in EV. Same as Brevard and Lake.
7 p.m. Indiana. Well, yeah.
6:57 p.m. Three minutes.
6:50 p.m. I am where I need to be. Let the earnest blogging begin.
5:58 p.m. Ah, at last: the sapience of that cadaverous non-entity James Carville, who like Karl Rove gets cable TV contracts because no one born after 1996 can remember their promising moments.
5:30 p.m. I will of course post often about Florida. A little while ago I noted promising results. For example: in Duval County, home of Jacksonville, one of the few remaining conservative big cities, GOP turnout is slowing down; Trump narrowly won in 2016, suggesting the red tinge was turning blue. Better, Miami-Dade County Elections insists it will release the data of one million voters by 7:30 p.m. Nate Silver calculates that the GOP needs to hit more 3 percent turnout to feel confident about victory; without the most populous counties counted yet, the GOP is at 1.8 percent.
5:28 p.m. When Florida flipped, the Blue Wall crumbled, and Pennsylvania looked uncertain four years ago tonight, I turned to my host and mumbled, “I think I need to go home.” Confident to the point of cocky, I felt as gutted as millions of other Americans. Today I feel as calm as yesterday.
5:26 p.m. The first gin and tonic mixed. I plan to take it easy tonight, as I tend to anyway because my body is programmed to awaken before the cock crows. Should Joe Biden will, I’ll courteously ask the host of this evening’s fête if she can open the good scotch.