I don’t often post poll numbers, but I have too many scaredy-cats in message groups and social media who need reminding that the president does not have anywhere near Ronald Reagan’s talent for projecting benignity. The opposite, according to Ed Kilgore:
There has been a lot of discussion in political circles about Donald Trump’s job-approval ratings, what they portend, and Trump’s Electoral College strategy for 2020, which doesn’t necessarily require a popular-vote plurality. But in the end, of course, the conjunction of the Electoral College with Trump’s state-by-state popularity is where the deal will go down….
….Civiqs shows the president’s net approval ratios being underwater (i.e., negative) in 10 states he carried in 2016: Arizona, Florida, Georgia, Iowa, Michigan, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Texas, and Wisconsin. If that were to represent how the 2020 elections turn out, Trump would have a booming 119 electoral votes. And it’s not as though he’s on a knife’s edge between victory and defeat in all these Trump 2016 states where he’s doing poorly: He’s underwater by 12 points in Pennsylvania, 11 in Michigan, and nine in Arizona, North Carolina, and Wisconsin. And there’s virtually no indication that states that narrowly went for Clinton in 2016 are trending in Trump’s direction: His approval ratios are minus 18 in Colorado, minus 15 in Minnesota, minus 12 in Nevada, and minus 27 in New Hampshire. These are, by the way, polls of registered voters, not just “adults,” so they should be a relatively sound reflection of the views of the electorate.
Which is why the meek coalescing around Joe Biden strikes me as a load of codswallop. Donald Trump is so loathed by suburbanites that no one on the left will repel them; at worst they’ll stay home, and these people — white affluent women — accounted for only a chunk of the electorate that mobilized against the president in November. Elizabeth Warren, Bernie Sanders, and, to a far lesser extent, Kamala Harris, have the policy and the charisma to chip away at the president’s feeble support. If Trump sees an uptick, blame white evangelical who distrusted him in 2016 but embraced him with open arms in 2018.
Just don’t underestimate the strength of social media psy-ops and voter disenfranchisement.