With over two-thirds of the vote cast (i.e. 37 percent) before Greg Gianforte treated a Guardian reporter as if he were a towel mat for his bare wet feet, there was little doubt Rob Quist would lose the Montana special election; Gianforte’s margin of victor and turnout mattered to me. Quist narrowed the gap to just over six points, according to the latest figures. Jeremy Stahl:
If the numbers hold, Democrats might actually consider it an encouraging sign nationally. Gianforte and his affiliated Super PACs outspent Democratic opponent and country music performer Rob Quist and his Super PAC supporters by about $5 million. Donald Trump won his race against Hillary Clinton this past fall in the state by 20 points, while Ryan Zinke—the Republican whose seat is being filled after he left Congress to become Trump’s Interior Secretary—won his contest by just under 16 points.
So you’re looking at about a +13 point swing for the Democrats from November’s presidential tally, and a nearly +9 point swing from last year’s Congressional race. That was not enough for Democrats to take a seat they haven’t won in 20 years, but it is consistent with a recent pattern in this year’s special elections of large swings towards the Democrats. Last month in a deep-red Kansas district, Democrats experienced a 24-point swing
On the other hand, I agree with Stahl that the Dems will have to win one of these races soon. Georgia?