Reassurances for the nervous of heart

First, from Florida, where the Hispanic wave continues to impress. My home county:

In Miami-Dade, voters have headed to the polls in record numbers: Through Friday, 648,000 voters already cast ballots — a sign that the total turnout for this presidential election will likely surpass that in 2012. That year, more than 879,000 voters cast ballots in both early and Election Day voting.

And while the razor thin margin of how many Democrats and Republicans have voted so far shifts from day to day, the tally favored the Democrats in Saturday morning reports.

Both sides have declared that they have the decisive edge heading into the final weekend before Election Day.

A normal response, perhaps the Trump campaign’s most normal response.

I turn next to Jon Ralston, doing exemplary work in Nevada:

Trump’s path was nearly impossible, as I have been telling you, before what happened in Clark County on Friday. But now he needs a Miracle in Vegas on Election Day — and a Buffalo Bills Super Bowl championship is more likely — to turn this around. The ripple effect down the ticket probably will cost the Republicans Harry Reid’s Senate seat, two GOP House seats and control of the Legislature.

How devastating was it, epitomized by thousands of mostly Latino voters keeping Cardenas market open open in Vegas until 10 PM? This cataclysmic:

—-The Democrats won Clark County by more than 11,000 votes Friday (final mail count not posted yet), a record margin on a record-setting turnout day of 57,000 voters. The Dems now have a firewall — approaching 73,000 ballots — greater than 2012 when Barack Obama won the state by nearly 7 points. The 71,000 of 2012 was slightly higher in percentage terms, but raw votes matter. The lead is 14 percentage points — right at registration. You know what else matters? Registration advantages (142,000 in Clark). Reminder: When the Clark votes were counted from early/mail voting in 2012, Obama had a 69,000 vote lead in Clark County. Game over.

Then longtime GOP operative Stuart Stevens glances at the Trump campaign’s schedule and, well, snorts.


I wrote about the smell of flop sweat the other day: Kerry in 2004, the reek of putrefying corpses on the McCain bus in 2008; Williard Romney was so deeply in denial, thanks to MOBY 49 or whatever he called the software tabulation program that was supposed to render the Google Machine obsolete, that he forgot he even had sweat glands.

Finally, Ned Raggett studies the Twitter tea leaves on two other swing states and notes developments so obvious that of course Joe Scarborough missed them. Pennsylvania first:

It is one of four states without early voting. Nothing has been counted. Ergo, appearances as morale boosters/GOTV drivers earlier would be essentially wasted; if anything, if she had spent more time there during the campaign, that would be seen as a massive concession of weakness. So: turn on the big guns at the end in the state where it matters (the other non-early voting states — New Jersey, Connecticut and New York itself — are all locks; no point in visiting.) She’s doing three visits in three days; I don’t have the agenda but I would assume it’s probably two Philadelphia visits, including the slam-bang finale with her husband and both the Obamas on Monday night, and one Pittsburgh one — a concentration on the state’s two biggest cities, understandably.

Let me add: Pennsylvania — like Florida, Nevada, North Carolina, and New Hampshire — also boasts a competitive Senate race. That’s why Clinton has visited so often, not because she hasn’t gotten those states “nailed down.”

The standard caveats apply. But lookin’ good.

This entry was posted in Uncategorized and tagged , , , . Bookmark the permalink.

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in: Logo

You are commenting using your account. Log Out /  Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )


Connecting to %s