Hialeah consists of Cubans in my grandmother’s generation who are in their decrepitude or, like Abuela, nostalgic about la patria. However, the men and women twenty to thirty years her juniors, like the woman who takes care of her, have been traveling back and forth from Cuba to the United States in the last six years and are horrified by Donald Trump.
There — that’s my bit of anecdotal evidence. Here’s the data:
Because it accounted for fully 29 percent (128,000) of the newly-registered Hispanics, Miami-Dade deserves a deeper look. As indicated in the table above, roughly 43,000 (34 percent) of the 128,000 newly-registered Hispanics in the county are Democrats; 59,000 (46 percent) indicated no party, and the remaining 25,000 (19 percent) are Republicans. Miami-Dade includes portions of five congressional districts, including large swaths of three majority-minority Hispanic districts (CD25, CD26, CD27), all of which are currently represented by Cuban-Americans.
Of the 251,000 Miami-Dade registered voters who reside in the newly drawn D25, 209,000 are Hispanics. Of these, 38 percent are Republicans, 32 percent are NPAs, and 28 percent are Democrats. Roughly 16 percent of the 209,000 new Hispanics in the district registered since January 1, 2013, and they split 22 percent Republican, 46 percent NPA and 31 percent Democratic.
I’m not surprised by the record number of Floridians declining a party affiliation; it gives them a soupcon of independence. But:
Although this advantage is most pronounced among Hispanic millennials in Hialeah, the Democratic advantage is apparent in every single age-cohort of new 2016 registered voters. Hispanics aged 18 to 29 are registering 38 percent Democrat to 18 percent Republican, which is largely consistent with youth registration patterns prior to 2013. More interesting is the fact that Hispanics aged 65 and over registered 36 percent Democrat to 33 percent Republican, a sharp reversal from their 23 percent Democrat to 59 percent Republican registration prior to 2013.
Apart from the instinctual allegiance of the young to social liberalism, the gains that Democrats have made in Florida suggest the importance of seeing a man who looks like them sitting in the Oval Office; years after writing a bestselling memoir and retiring from president of Columbia University, Barack Obama and “Barack Obama” as symbol will regain their power to attract.
Another reason to regret Hillary Clinton’s selection of Tim Kaine as running mate.