‘Cubans have never given so little support to the Republican candidate’

Not that these poll results surprise me. How these results correlate with the presidential election we’ll learn soon enough; however, if legal residents could vote I suspect Hillary Clinton would demolish Trump because they fear that Trump will at best end “wet food dry foot” and at worse treat them as he would the Mexicans who aren’t, like Cubans, beneficiaries of the most humane and far-reaching immigration posture in American history. Anyway:

For the first time in the poll’s history, a clear majority of respondents — 54 percent — also wants to end the Cuban embargo, compared to 32 percent who want to keep it (14 percent don’t know or wouldn’t say). The last time FIU conducted the poll, in 2014, respondents were against the embargo by 45-41 percent, with 12 percent in the don’t-know/wouldn’t-answer category.

Asked if the embargo was successful, 55 percent said it wasn’t “at all.” Only 17 percent said it worked well or very well, with 19 percent saying it had worked “not very well.”

This being a presidential election year, the pollsters also tried to gauge the popularity of Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump among local Cubans. They favored Trump by 36-31 percent, though that number is somewhat stale because the survey was conducted from July 11-Aug. 12.

Still, that result — slightly inside the poll’s error margin of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points — indicates trouble for Trump among Cuban Americans, the most Republican-leaning of all Hispanic voters.

“Cubans have never given so little support to the Republican candidate,” Grenier said. His finding echoes a survey conducted earlier this year by Republican pollster Dario Moreno, who feared Trump’s candidacy would drive Miami-Dade Cubans out of the GOP.

Of FIU’s respondents, 54 percent were Republican, 22 percent Democrat and 25 percent independent. Most respondents who arrived in the U.S. before 1980 and 1994 are Republican; the pollsters differentiated among three major waves of Cuban immigration to South Florida.

I’ve written a lot about Cuba. I expect to write more. In the next twenty years, the chances are high that I’ll visit — why wouldn’t I? Fidel isn’t Yoda. Apart from natural curiosity about an ancestral home, I’m curious as hell about Cuba’s economic history: whether the Western Hemisphere will see a diminutive example of Chinese state-run capitalism, which is to say authoritarian capitalism. The regime arrested fifty dissidents while Barack Obama was on the island. If none of my liberal friends regard capitalism as a panacea, then I don’t understand how it might mollify human rights abuses on the island because thawing relations was a necessary step.

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